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Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee – small increase for 2013/14

Australian wool production is on track for a small increase this season, but is expected to ease slightly in 2013/14. The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has increased the 2012/13 shorn wool production forecast to 350 million kilograms (mkg) greasy, up 2.3% from 2011/12 levels.

Committee chairman Russell Pattinson commented that reports from state committees and recent data such as Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) year on year pre-sale wool test data (+3% till end March) were the main reasons for the small upward revision in production for this season.

Wool production gains for 2012/13 are a result of increases in New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia, which have more than offset the slight decreases in wool production in Victoria, Tasmania and Queensland.

The AWPFC reports higher opening sheep and sheep shorn numbers for this season, and a slightly lower fall in fleece weights than previously expected, as being the key drivers in the increased forecast from the December estimate.

The AWPFC has also made the first forecast for the 2013/14 season, with a slight decrease in wool production (-1.4%) to 345mkgs. This decrease is largely due to an expected decrease in opening sheep numbers, as a result of increased sheep and lamb slaughtering’s this season; and a reduction in average fleece weight as a result of the dry seasonal conditions being experienced across many woolgrowing regions.

The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes brokers, growers, private treaty merchants, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture, and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.

Data and input was also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, AWTA and Meat and Livestock Australia.

The full forecast report is available on the AWI website.

Source: AWI